Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $888,715$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018,000.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018,000.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,149$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,348.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,348.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $50,720$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,853$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,726.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,726.7\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,645$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,615.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,615.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,550$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,380,635$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,533,042.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,533,042.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $156,903$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,904.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(158,904.4\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $697,339$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $502,063$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{459,670.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(459,670.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,944$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,913.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,913.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,867$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $161,635$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,527.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181,527.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,553$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,404.0}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 197.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21,404.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,323$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,090,589$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,573,390.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,573,390.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,896$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,109.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 221.9)}}\) (asimptote \(66,109.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $166,874$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,015,885$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,033,033.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,033,033.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,000$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,642.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,642.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,506$ on 2020-10-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,170$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,183.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,183.8\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-25
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29$ on 2020-10-25