Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $888,715$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018,000.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018,000.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,149$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,348.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,348.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,720$ on 2020-10-25

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,853$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,726.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142,726.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,645$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,615.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,615.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,550$ on 2020-10-25

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,380,635$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,533,042.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,533,042.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $156,903$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,904.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 121.0)}}\) (asimptote \(158,904.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $697,339$ on 2020-10-25

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $502,063$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{459,670.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 109.9)}}\) (asimptote \(459,670.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,944$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,913.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,913.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,867$ on 2020-10-25

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $161,635$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,527.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 146.1)}}\) (asimptote \(181,527.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,553$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,404.0}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 197.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21,404.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,323$ on 2020-10-25

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,090,589$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,573,390.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,573,390.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,896$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,109.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 221.9)}}\) (asimptote \(66,109.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $166,874$ on 2020-10-25

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,015,885$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,033,033.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 160.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,033,033.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,000$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,642.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(30,642.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,506$ on 2020-10-25

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,170$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,183.8}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,183.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.3)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-10-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Suriname recovered 97%
Bolivia recovered 61%
Venezuela recovered 60%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,565$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,087.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 169.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,087.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $773$ on 2020-10-25

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{884.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 161.8)}}\) (asimptote \(884.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,845$ on 2020-10-25